Disease and weather are of the upmost importance to orange juice producers and the following are the key areas of focus:
Hurricanes - Since Florida is the source of around 90% of orange juice in the United States, hurricanes heading towards the peninsula can cause significant interest. In the 1960's Hurricane Donna cut across Florida causing a loss of anywhere between 35 to 50% of the orange crop. In 2004, three hurricanes whipped across the state causing an estimated 30% destruction of the orange crop. Winds from hurricanes can cause direct tree damage as well as spreading disease.
Frost - Oranges are sensitive to cold temperatures and frost or freezing can devastate a crop overnight. Freezing temperatures have threatened groves and caused major crop losses since well before the 20th century. Due to the winter freeze of 1989, most growers have moved further south in Florida. The chill inspired exodus means most of Florida's growers are in the southern region of the state. Usually, when a freeze is forecast, growers will spray fruit with a protective coat of ice to insulate against extensive damage.
Citrus Canker - This bacterial disease causes lesions on leaves, stem, and fruit and can cause oranges to drop early. Most countries in which infection has been detected are unable to export fruit to other countries and eradication programs have been implemented including destroying and quarantining infected trees. Despite a few times when the US has declared citrus canker eradicated, it has persisted and its spread is likely exacerbated by the winds associated with hurricanes. Canker has also caused significant losses of crop and revenue in Brazil.
Citrus Greening - Unlike canker, this bacterial disease can kill trees and greatly reduce production. Greening was confirmed in US groves in 2005 and has rapidly spread across southern Florida. The disease is primarily spread by two psyllid insects which feed on trees and carry the disease from infected to healthy trees. Symptoms include poor flowering, small blotchy leaves, and small and misshapen fruit with a bitter or sour taste. Citrus greening is also established in Brazil.
Besides these fundamental concerns, other factors can impact the price of orange juice. Consumer demand can be important to watch and, since juice is frozen and stored, the cold storage report from the USDA is also worth watching if you are looking to trade orange juice.
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